Among ASEAN countries, income woes most severe, economic aid most lacking in PH

Among all members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), the impact of the pandemic on incomes is worst in the Philippines. The even more dreadful news is that the Duterte administration is providing the least resources for economic aid to support affected workers and other vulnerable sectors.

Based on a recent survey by the Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI), 67% of Filipino households saw their income drop by more than 25% due to the pandemic. Indonesia ranked second with 64% of households and Malaysia, the lowest, with 40 percent. The ADBI study was published in March 2021.

Further breaking down the data, more Filipino households also suffered the steepest declines in income during the pandemic than any of our ASEAN neighbors. About 21% of Filipino households had their income fall by more than 75 percent. Three countries (Cambodia, Indonesia and Thailand) had 11% of their households experience such decline in incomes during the pandemic; Vietnam posted the lowest with four percent. Similarly, an income decline of more than 50% was felt by 41% of Filipino households; Indonesia is a far second with 27% of households while Vietnam recorded the lowest with 15 percent.

The ADBI survey also noted that in the ASEAN overall, the income class of household on average is not related to the likelihood of experiencing a decline in income. This suggests that the pandemic affects the income of all households regardless of their economic status before the pandemic. But the trend is different in the Philippines where households in the lower-income classes are more likely to have income declines than those in the upper-income classes. This means that the fall in income in the Philippines described above was a phenomenon mainly felt by the poorer households.

Consequently, the Philippines also ranked first in the region in terms of households that experience financial difficulty during the pandemic. About 85% of Filipino households indicated in the ADBI survey that they were having financial difficulty; Indonesia followed with 84% while Myanmar ranked the lowest at 27 percent.

Obviously, the poorer the household, the greater the likelihood of financial difficulty during the pandemic. This however is more felt in the Philippines than in any other countries in the region. In ASEAN overall, the average difference in the likelihood to get into financial difficulty between the richest group and the poorest group is 20 percentage points. But in the Philippines, the difference is a huge 40 percentage points, the worst in the region.

More than half of Filipino households or 51.8% said that if they lose all of their income sources, their resources to cover daily needs could only last up to two weeks. It is the second worst to Indonesia which had a staggering 86.6% of households saying that their resources will not last for more than two weeks. About 73.2% of households in the Philippines will not last beyond a month; 87.3% will not last beyond three months.

These numbers summarize the economic hardship experienced by millions of households when lockdowns are implemented. The ADBI study illustrates how such suffering is more severe for poor households in the Philippines compared to other ASEAN countries.

According to government data, 9.1 million workers lost their job between March 2020 and February 2021. Of this number, 2.2 million remain jobless up to this day, adding to the current number of unemployed which stands at 4.2 million based on official data.

The actual extent of unemployment could be much widespread than what government numbers show. For instance, based on surveys of the Social Weather Stations (SWS), the number of jobless adults averaged 21.2 million in 2020. In 2019, the average was 9.3 million which indicates that the number of jobless swelled by 11.9 million during the pandemic.

Nonetheless, latest available official unemployment data again show the Philippines as the most impacted by the pandemic. As of February 2021, the unemployment rate among Filipino workers is pegged at 8.8% and was at 8.7% in January. In Indonesia, unemployment rate is at 7.1% (August 2020); Malaysia, 4.8% (December); Vietnam, 2.5% (December); and Thailand, 1.9% (December).

With the reimposition of lockdowns, Filipino households face more miseries. The National Economic Development Authority (NEDA) said that lockdowns cost PHP 700 million to PHP 2.1 billion in lost wages every day. Government economic managers also expect unemployment rate to remain at almost twice the pre-pandemic levels up to 2022.

Sadly, the Philippine government also allocates the scantiest resources for economic support to those impacted by the pandemic. Based on the COVID-19 policy tracker of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the Duterte administration’s fiscal package for vulnerable individuals and groups is equivalent to 3.1% of the gross domestic product (GDP). The package includes cash aid program for low-income households and social protection measures for vulnerable workers, including displaced and overseas Filipino workers (OFWs).

In contrast, Thailand’s package of support for its workers, farmers, and other vulnerable sectors, including subsidies for daily household needs like water and electricity is about 9.6% of its GDP. Indonesia allotted an equivalent of 4.4% of its GDP for assistance schemes to its low-income households, for unemployment benefits and tax relief. Malaysia’s stimulus package is around 4.3% of its GDP, intended for cash transfers to low-income households, wage subsidies, electricity subsidies, etc. Even Vietnam allocated a higher 3.6% of its GDP for cash transfers, deferred tax payments, etc.

Duterte, in a leaked memo, instructed all government media platforms “to carry regular updates about the world data on COVID-19, specifically to convey to the public that the Philippines is faring better than many countries in addressing the pandemic”. The order is an attempt to counter the widespread criticism on government’s inadequate response to the crisis, but it merely further exposed Duterte’s incompetence.

Because no matter how government spins the data, the deteriorating situation on the ground confirms what the numbers show – that the Philippines has among the worst levels and suffers the gravest impacts of the pandemic; and that government response is among the most inadequate and failed. ###

COVID-19, Governance

#DutertePalpak: PH worst in Southeast Asia in COVID-19 response amid surge in new cases

For two straight days, the Philippines posted record highs in daily new COVID-19 cases. The DOH reported Mar 20 that the country registered 7,999 cases, breaking the previous all-time high of 7,103 monitored just a day before.

The surge in new COVID-19 cases in the Philippines is the second worst in Southeast Asia. Based on data compiled by the Economist, the Philippines registered 78 confirmed new cases per 100,000 people in the past 28 days as of Mar 20. That puts the country behind Malaysia which had 166 new cases per 100,000. Indonesia ranked third with 70 confirmed cases.

But what is even more alarming for Filipinos is that amid the surge in new COVID-19 cases, the response of the Duterte government to the pandemic more than a year into the crisis remains grossly inadequate and incompetent. While implementing the strictest and longest lockdown in the region, the Philippines continues to lag behind our neighbors in Southeast Asia in actually responding to the pandemic.

To illustrate, Malaysia, which has the worst surge in new cases over the past month, has been providing more than 97 vaccinations per day per 100,000 people. The Philippines, on the contrary, is providing only 23 per day per 100,000 people. Indonesia, which has a comparable intensity of surge in new cases with the Philippines, is way ahead in terms of vaccination as it administers 139 vaccinations per day per 100,000 people.

We are lagging behind even the poorest countries in Southeast Asia. The Philippine economy is about 14 times the size of the Cambodian economy but the latter is providing six times the number of vaccinations per 100,000 people than the Philippines.

As of today, only 0.3% of the Philippine adult population has at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine – the worst among Southeast Asian countries with high levels of cases. Poorer neighbors like Cambodia, Myanmar and Laos have even much better vaccination numbers. ###

Governance, Human rights

Junk Duterte’s terror bill

Terorista lang daw ang target ng anti-terrorism bill ni Duterte?

The farmers, the lumad – they are the biggest victims of terrorism, by the state. Duterte made the Philippine countryside the deadliest place in the world for farmers, indigenous people and the advocates of their rights.

In 2019, for instance, we ranked first in the list of countries with the highest number of monitored extrajudicial killings of farmers, farm workers, indigenous people, and land activists with 38 cases and 50 victims. That’s about one killing per week. Colombia, another country notorious for its political killings of rural people and activists, was a far second with 21 monitored cases and 27 victims.

Read the full report here: https://bit.ly/2MwguyF

COVID-19, Global issues, Governance

Duterte: COVID-19 figures not so bad; Data say otherwise

As Metro Manila and other areas prepare to transition from modified ECQ to GCQ, Pres. Duterte said Thursday (May 28) that figures on COVID-19 in the Philippines are “all in all, not so bad”.

“The death toll is 921. So you would see that the Philippines has…ratio and proportion vis-a-vis with the population, we have a low rate of mortality here in this country,” Duterte claimed.

But latest available data (as of May 28) show otherwise.

In ASEAN, the Philippines actually has the worst record in terms of COVID-19 deaths in relation to the population. Eight Filipinos die of COVID-19 per 1 million people in the country. In comparison, the death rate in Brunei and Indonesia is five per million people. Malaysia and Singapore have four deaths per million; Thailand has one.

Overall, the Philippines is the 12th worst country in Asia in terms of COVID-19 deaths relative to population size (as of this posting). We’re the worst among all countries not just in Southeast Asia but also in South Asia and East Asia. (See data here)

Relative to the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases, the Philippines ranks next to Indonesia in terms of the worst mortality rate in ASEAN. Indonesia has 6.10 deaths per 100 cases of COVID-19 while the Philippines has 5.91. Thailand has 1.86; Malaysia, 1.51; Brunei, 1.42; and Singapore, just 0.07. ###

COVID-19, Governance, Human rights

PH has strictest lockdown in Asia, but ineffective vs. COVID-19

COVID-19 Strictest Lockdowns

If you feel that the COVID-19 lockdown being imposed by the Duterte regime is very strict, data say you are right. In fact, Duterte’s lockdown is the strictest in the region, even more rigid than that of his fellow authoritarian ruler Narendra Modi of India.

Compiling Google’s data on six categories of public mobility (retail and recreation; grocery stores and pharmacies; parks; transit stations; workplaces; and residential areas), the Nikkei Asian Review reported that the Philippines posted the largest average decline at 50.83 percent. With severe restrictions, the Duterte administration brought down public mobility by 85% in transit stations; by 79% in retail and recreation; and by 71% in workplaces. India ranked second with an average decline in public mobility by 47.83 percent.

But data also say these repressive lockdowns are not effective in the fight against COVID-19. While the Philippines and India are imposing very tight rules to restrict public mobility, they are still failing to bring down the number of new COVID-19 cases, which continue their upward trajectory after almost two months of lockdown.

On the contrary, countries that implemented less severe measures to control public mobility like Taiwan (2.16% decline in public mobility); South Korea (11.0%); Japan (13.83%); Vietnam (29.5%); and Thailand (31.66%) are significantly doing better in terms of bringing down the number of their daily new cases, as shown in the charts. (From EndCoronavirus.org)

Lockdowns are meant to hide the sorry state of public health systems and a convenient cover for leaders like Duterte (and Modi) to consolidate their authoritarian rule. The effective way to contain the spread of the new coronavirus are not repressive measures but reliable health and medical interventions, including testing.

Not surprisingly, there is an inverse correlation between testing and severity of lockdowns. Countries that conduct less tests tend to implement more severe lockdowns. India only conducts 1,042 tests per 1 million people while the Philippines conducts 1,379. Compare these figures to those countries that restricted public mobility less severely: Taiwan (2,790 tests per 1 million people); South Korea (12,773); Japan (1,502); Vietnam (2,681); and Thailand (3,264). (From Worldometer)

COVID-19, Global issues, Governance

COVID-19 charts: PH death rate, testing capacity among worst in ASEAN

You know the Philippines is in deep shit when it has the highest number of #COVID19 deaths relative to the population and one of the worst testing capacities in the region, and yet all President Duterte could talk about are Martial Law and the NPA.

As of Apr. 24, the Philippines is averaging four COVID-19 deaths per 1 million people, the highest in ASEAN. This is twice the rate of Singapore and Indonesia, the top 2 countries in the region with the most number of novel coronavirus infections in absolute terms. (See Chart 1)

COVID-19 Deaths ASEAN for FB

Meanwhile, COVID-19 tests in the Philippines are among the lowest in ASEAN, pegged at 660 per 1 million people. Brunei is conducting more than 28,400 tests per million; Singapore, more than 16,200. Even Thailand is conducting thrice the number of tests that the Philippines does relative to its population. (See Chart 2)

COVID-19 Tests ASEAN for FB

COVID-19, Global issues, Human rights

PH prisons: Ticking COVID-19 time bombs

Image from Nikkei Asian Review

The Philippines has the world’s most overcrowded prisons, according to the World Prison Brief (WPB). In Asia, a region where jammed detention facilities are ticking #COVID19 time bombs, Philippine prison overcrowding is twice as worse as Bangladesh, the distant second in the region in terms of prison overcrowding.

At the Quezon City jail, which is almost 5x overfilled, nine inmates and nine staff members are COVID-19 positive. In a Mandaluyong jail, 19 inmates and a staff are COVID-19 positive. In Cebu City, two inmates are infected. To be sure, there could be more.

Worse, Duterte’s Martial Law-like implementation of anti-COVID-19 measures is further overcrowding prison facilities unnecessarily. In the 35 days of enhanced community quarantine (ECQ), the Philippine National Police (PNP) has arrested 31,363 people for violating government’s draconian lockdown rules.

Those arrested include urban poor who were demanding government aid; people who were forced to eke out a living despite the ECQ due to lack of government support; and even more outrageously, relief volunteers who were assisting poor communities cope with the crisis amid absence of government assistance.

The militarist mindset and approach of the Duterte regime are further exposing the public to greater danger. ###

Governance, Human rights

The people are not afraid of you, Mr. President

“WE’RE STARVING”. Residents of an urban poor community in Sitio San Roque in Quezon City trooped to EDSA on Apr. 1 amid strict lockdown rules due to COVID-19 to demand relief from government. (Photo: Yahoo! News)

President Duterte’s militarist response to the COVID-19 crisis took a turn for the worse on Tuesday, Apr. 1. In a televised address to the nation, he warned people seeking government relief amid the pandemic that he will “shoot them dead”. His unscheduled speech was apparently triggered by the protest of an urban poor community in Sitio San Roque demanding the government assistance promised to them when the capital region was put on enhanced community quarantine (ECQ).

The police arrested 21 of the protesting urban poor, adding to the more than 17,000 mostly poor people arrested nationwide for violating government’s lockdown policies. Compare the number of people arrested by the Philippine National Police (PNP) to the number of persons tested by the Department of Health (DOH) to combat COVID-19, which stood at just 3,938.

Filipinos have been enduring Duterte’s mindless and violent rants for four years now. But his latest incendiary rhetoric of ordering his police and soldiers to kill without hesitation those who violate his authoritarian ECQ hits differently for most. Locked down, deprived of mobility and productive work, starved and grappling with fear and uncertainty so much as with the unfamiliar virus as with government’s overall response to contain it, the people are enraged.

Duterte, as he is wont to do every time the legitimacy of his leadership is challenged, framed his virulent tirade as a warning to the Left, whose only desire according to the long ailing Chief Executive is to destabilize his government. He thought that this would justify his violent diatribe because the Left is supposedly an enemy of the state.

But the public felt it was not just addressed to the Left; or more likely they have already identified with the legitimate demands of the Left from this regime. Whichever is the case, Duterte is picking a fight not just against the politically organized sections of society, but all the people harshly impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic and government’s tyrannical response to a public health crisis.

The erstwhile apolitical, be they public personalities or one’s family and friends, are speaking up over Twitter or dinner against Duterte’s heartless verbal onslaught and its real implications to people’s welfare, especially those who are vulnerable to more hunger and poverty. The ECQ may have prevented public gatherings, but it also gave people more time online to discuss, share and process their collective thoughts and sentiments against the regime. It gave families and neighborhoods more time together to agree as a group how insufferable and contemptible the President and his men have become.

The ECQ meant to isolate the people from each other because of COVID-19 is ironically bringing more and more together in the conviction that the current state of the nation is no longer acceptable and tolerable. The people are not afraid of you, Mr. President. They are increasingly finding strength and courage from each other.

Duterte and his Defense and military people who are behind and in charge of the lockdown wrongly thought that their dastardly agenda of repressing dissent and democratic rights under the pretext of political stability has been made easier by the COVID-19 pandemic. On the contrary, the crisis and the government measures to supposedly address it in fact have heightened the conditions for greater social unrest and conflict, and for people to organize and take collective political actions.

The existing and emerging material conditions for these are unmistakable. Duterte’s own economic managers are forecasting an economic contraction of as much as 0.6% and job losses of as high as 1.8 million (one million in Luzon alone) this year due to the pandemic. Total economic losses could reach as much as PHP 1.36 trillion, with Luzon accounting for more than one trillion These estimates assume that the ECQ will only last for a month.

As the crisis is global, the economy could not rely on foreign exchange, including remittances from overseas Filipinos and foreign trade, to boost domestic consumption. The world economy may already be in a recession that some economists say is comparable in severity to the 2008-2009 Great Recession. Or it can even be worse. The International Labor Organization (ILO), for instance, estimates that the COVID-19 pandemic could wipe out up to 24.7 million jobs worldwide. For comparison, the global financial and economic crisis 10 years ago claimed 22 million jobs.

The National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) expects remittances to drop by as much as PHP 8.5 billion this year due to the crisis. Many Filipino families will face hardship in the coming months, even long after the lockdown has been lifted. They include not just the urban and rural poor, who are the most exposed to the impacts of pandemics and economic declines, but even those who used to have the means to spend more. The pressure will further increase for government to provide social and economic services, something that the COVID-19 crisis has shown the regime is incapable of.

There is a disease spreading in government that is plunging the nation into chaos and death. It is not caused by the novel coronavirus, but by the old, familiar virus of authoritarianism. To get rid of this virus and heal as one, the country truly needs a bayanihan – to determinedly and strongly work together as a people in building a government and a nation that is truly theirs. In this battle, all the oppressed are frontliners.

Economy

Economy continues slowdown under Duterte

The gross domestic product (GDP) grew by just 5.6% in the first quarter of 2019. That’s the slowest quarterly growth in four years.

Duterte’s economic managers are pinning the blame on the delayed passage of the 2019 national budget. What they do not say is that the slowdown this quarter is just a continuation of the overall trend of slowing economic growth since the Duterte administration took over in 2016. (See chart below)

Annual GDP growth rate averaged 6.9% in 2016, then slowed down to 6.7% in 2017, and further to 6.2% last year.

Not that the economy was in a better shape under Aquino and the previous regimes.

But the slowdown under Duterte shows that absent fundamental economic reforms to boost agricultural production and encourage manufacturing expansion that will create long-term, productive jobs; promote domestic consumption as growth driver (e.g., through substantial wage hikes and removal of onerous taxes); etc., the relatively rapid growth in the first half of 2010s is not sustainable.

What we have seen under Duterte so far is the further destruction of agriculture and rural livelihoods such as through the Rice Tariffication Law; continuation of the low wage policy to attract foreign investors; additional tax burden under the TRAIN Law, etc.

Duterte’s economic managers think that infrastructure spending (i.e., “Build, Build, Build”) will impact GDP figures positively. But this may be true only in the short term. As the program relies heavily on public debt, not to mention that most of the infrastructure will be privatized anyway, it will actually create more problems for the economy and the people in the long term. ###

Human rights

Who is afraid of IBON?

(Photo: Politiko)

The only reason that Malacañang is going after groups like IBON Foundation is that because they have been very effective in exposing the lies of the Duterte government.

IBON has been effective in refuting the false claims of Duterte’s economic managers about the TRAIN Law, inflation, improving employment situation, benefits of Chinese loans, etc.

Instead of squarely and convincingly proving as false the fact-based criticisms of IBON or look at its concrete proposals to address the country’s economic woes, the Duterte administration resorts to malicious accusations.

For the past 40 years, IBON has established itself as a reliable source of progressive research and analysis on national socioeconomic issues. From Marcos to Duterte – IBON has been consistent in its position that economics should be about the people, their rights and interests.

But the Duterte administration obviously has zero tolerance for views and alternatives that contradict its policies and programs, including on the economy. Thus, it uses public resources not only to question the legitimacy of IBON but to apparently try to shut it down.

What Malacañang is doing is blatant repression. And while it targets the sources of funding support of IBON, the irresponsible act of the Duterte government also puts the officials and staff of IBON at risk of physical harm.

That is criminal and reprehensible. ###

A Radical's Nut

Notes on Philippine economy and politics

Tag Archives: Duterte